FRIENDS LIKE THESE
Israel Calls Beeper Bombs A ‘New Phase’ [updated]
Don’t be fooled; it’s more of a ‘last gasp’
Let’s not be deceived by Israel’s announcement of a “new phase” in the siege of Gaza, or “the war” as they insist on calling it. This beeper bomb gimmick is hardly a new phase. It’s a last gasp. It’s a desperate, reckless move. Booby-trapped phones and pagers are never going to to defeat anyone, ever. It’s surprising, certainly, but the novelty wears off fast, creating a lot of extremely pissed off victims and new enemies.
I would guess that the booby-trapped devices were meant to be triggered during the early phase of a ground invasion, in which context they could have been an effective enhancement. Taking out a significant number of defending soldiers and commanders in a novel, unexpected way would have been a nice touch. But only in that context. As a stand-alone move, it’s sloppy, with low precision and lots of bystander casualties. It’s merely a terrorist attack. [1]
I imagine that either a planned IDF ground invasion had been cancelled and the order was given to “use it or lose it” because the sabotage would eventually have been discovered, or the invasion is still on the cards, but the Lebanese had become suspicious or received a tip, so the Israelis gave the order to throw the switch. Using an attack like this outside of some larger context is far from ideal, but the Israeli government apparently believed it was better than letting the whole effort go to waste. [I personally think the self-harm element here is substantial, as I discussed in a followup article.]
Israel has said that this attack signals a new phase in the conflict, like they just rooted all of Lebanon, but I’d say they’re just beating their chests. I don’t doubt that they could have another exploit queued up so that they can follow this threat with action, but I suspect that if there is a follow-up it will be the last. They’re crowing about how clever and potent they are, as bullies and losers will, but I think the actual harm they’ve done — and I don’t wish to sound insensitive here — is militarily trivial. On a personal level it’s devastating, of course, and that can only be bad news for Israel, which is on its way to becoming the most despised nation on earth, worse than North Korea at this point. There seems to be no level of depravity to which they won’t stoop.
They are flailing. And I think the reason is both obvious and crummy: to get themselves into a pickle that only their rich Uncle Sam can get them out of. They’ll spill buckets American blood as readily an anyone else’s.
Friends like these, eh?
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[1] Update 29 Sept: Since press time, Israel has assassinated several Hezbollah leaders and commanders, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. While it’s tempting to take this as evidence of failed Lebanese opsec and/or superhuman Israeli intel and tradecraft, bear in mind that the Hezbollah leadership circulate freely among the populace, whom they represent in government, and their locations are more or less publicly known. These men were not hiding. They were easy targets, by design. Hezbollah will certainly have contingency plans this foreseeable event. I doubt they’re as badly hurt as the Western press would have us believe.
