OPERATION ROLLING BLUNDER
Is It Time To Invade Israel?
It’s not just permitted; it’s required by law
Israel’s ethnic cleansing campaign in Gaza subjects it to perfectly legal armed intervention to prevent or interrupt genocide and to execute arrest warrants under international law. The ICJ has ordered it to suspend hostile action in Rafah, and the ICC has sought arrest warrants for the PM and defense minister. Israel will not comply, so it’s now a matter of law enforcement.
It’s plausible to foresee a UN security council resolution authorizing the use of force against Israel to protect innocent civilians in Palestine and to arrest five named war criminals. This might seem improbable from a political point of view, but in terms of the law, armed intervention is quite reasonable — indeed, at this point, mandatory.
The United States would almost certainly veto any such resolution, but that need not be the end of it. Israel clearly intends to depopulate all of Gaza, and nothing can stop it. There is no deal that the Israelis will accept. Their endgame is apocalyptic. Safe areas were always a cruel fiction: every square foot of Gaza has been a free-fire zone from day one because ethnic cleansing was always the sole objective. Israel will not stop; it can only be stopped. This is their choice.
Getting around U.S. interference is a challenge, but if a coalition were to form without American consent, and step up on behalf of Palestine, I doubt the United States would show so little regard for its standing in the world that it would fight directly against soldiers acting in defense of unarmed civilians under siege.
In a fantasy lineup, I’d have Egypt and Turkey comprising the core of a diverse regional force disciplining Israel appropriately, with the United states wringing its hands and whingeing, as it does, but not intervening with its own military (and certainly not if Turkey, a NATO member state, participates). The major difficulty is that Egypt’s government depends on American military support and foreign aid, while Turkey is at least nicely served by its Western trade and security relationships.
Still, there’s firm military logic here: Israel is beatable. Qassam Brigades fighters can continue their quite respectable guerrilla operations. They’ve been good at damaging enemy tanks. They’ve proved themselves to be resourceful, courageous, formidable soldiers and competent snipers — and, ironically, the more so now, as Israel’s extravagant bombing and shelling continues. The vast landscape of rubble that was once Gaza is now providing more and better hide sites for the resistance fighters. They can also attack from nearer their targets, because concealment and cover are now plentiful.
The effect on Israeli morale has been substantial. There is no safe direction for the IDF army, even if they know where the tunnels are located (which provide a whole separate collection of dangers). IDF troops are vulnerable from above, surface level, and below ground, 360 degrees around. I’ve noticed them using tanks as mobile cover, but I rarely see many support troops protecting them, so frightened are the IDF to show themselves. They tend to cower inside their tanks and APCs, leaving the vehicles themselves vulnerable to the kind of brazen, broad-daylight attacks that Qassam fighters appear to take pleasure in, like counting coup.
I would not wish to be a hastily-trained, over-equipped Israeli reservist or conscript in those circumstances. Or leading them, as many 21 year-old captains and 20 year-old staff sergeants are doing. The Israeli air force has got some serious bandwidth, I’ll allow; but the army is embarrassingly unprofessional and cowardly — trembling military LARPers good only for murdering civilians at long range or from behind cover using spectacularly overpowered weapons.
Meanwhile, the Houthis are doing God’s work in the Red Sea and Hezbollah has been effective in the North. A little support from the Arab neighbors — in the form of closing air space to US and British planes and closing US bases — plus a bit of leadership and some heavy lifting from Turkey and Egypt, and we could witness the Gaza siege ending with Netanyahu and Gallant in handcuffs and en route to the Hague — possibly without firing a shot.
The tricky bit is that virtually all potential sources of help are in debt to America. And the scary bit is this: the Israelis absolutely will try to provoke Iran, thereby setting up the Americans to rescue them. If the Iranians take the bait, it could lead to an even worse disaster than the one we’re faced with now. Iran must understand that limiting itself to back-channel support is very much in its own interests. I doubt the government needs to be told that, but internal pressure to respond directly to Israeli provocation will be hard to resist.
Iran aside, Uncle Sam will not fight Egypt and Turkey and Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Not if it wants to avoid destroying its credibility for a century to come.
America can remain a respected world power while also letting Israel suffer the consequences of its unpardonable quest for innocent blood, because — and let’s be honest here — Israel is flagrantly committing the most diabolical mass crime of the 21st Century and has therefore forfeited any expectation of help from any civilized nation. They obliterated their self-defense plea around 14,000 dead children ago, and are increasingly recognized throughout the world as a broadly-destructive rogue state, on par with North Korea. Israel is the single greatest threat to peace and stability in the Middle East.
Putting an end to the sadistic violence in Gaza, while permanently reducing Israel’s military bandwidth and political footprint, is necessary for regional stability, certainly; but it’s also very much in the interest of people everywhere. Because if the Israelis get away with genocide in Gaza today, then who else, and where else, tomorrow? No one will ever be safe if we fail to stop this obscene endeavor and punish all of the criminals responsible. Things escalate: ethnic cleansing in Gaza today might mean social cleansing in your city tomorrow.
So, invade Israel now and arrest the war criminals. The life you save might be your own.
